The “next increment” is a topic that deserves a lot more nuanced discussion than I’ve heard from Strong Towns. Trying to figure out what the next increment means in a very mixed neighborhood is tricky. I live in a central city neighborhood developed post WWI, that has single family houses as the most prominent housing type, but many small & medium sized multi-family structures, with a few high rises (2 miles from CBD).
With the ability to build up to 6 units per lot, or up to 5 stories with multiple lots, land values don’t allow the next increment without serious compromises. Your numbers reflect our upside down real estate market that makes small scale development nearly impossible. I’m looking forward to your comments on how to reduce construction costs without sacrificing quality. Building a high quality shell with upgradable finishes is one way I’ve considered. That’s tough when the market insists on building to a finished state, inside & out.
"This is a major reason gentrification happens where it does. You need a big gap between current prices and potential prices in order for any development to happen." Great observation. I think this is why ADUs have been so successful. Adding units to a piece of land is more economical than doing a full rebuild.
There's also lots of talk about how incremental development "scales" but I don't see how it make senses from the napkin math I've done, at least compared to more intense, high density development.
The economics have changed because the technology has changed. No amount of swooning over the past will bring back ice harvesting as an industry in Brainerd. People have those fancy electric ice boxes to do that now.
The same with housing. The tech is the auto + instead of spending $700k on condo that's not downtown, I can drive 5 miles west and buy a SFH for less than that. Plus have my own yard and not have to listen to my neighbors stomp around at 2am.
The “next increment” is a topic that deserves a lot more nuanced discussion than I’ve heard from Strong Towns. Trying to figure out what the next increment means in a very mixed neighborhood is tricky. I live in a central city neighborhood developed post WWI, that has single family houses as the most prominent housing type, but many small & medium sized multi-family structures, with a few high rises (2 miles from CBD).
With the ability to build up to 6 units per lot, or up to 5 stories with multiple lots, land values don’t allow the next increment without serious compromises. Your numbers reflect our upside down real estate market that makes small scale development nearly impossible. I’m looking forward to your comments on how to reduce construction costs without sacrificing quality. Building a high quality shell with upgradable finishes is one way I’ve considered. That’s tough when the market insists on building to a finished state, inside & out.
"This is a major reason gentrification happens where it does. You need a big gap between current prices and potential prices in order for any development to happen." Great observation. I think this is why ADUs have been so successful. Adding units to a piece of land is more economical than doing a full rebuild.
There's also lots of talk about how incremental development "scales" but I don't see how it make senses from the napkin math I've done, at least compared to more intense, high density development.
The economics have changed because the technology has changed. No amount of swooning over the past will bring back ice harvesting as an industry in Brainerd. People have those fancy electric ice boxes to do that now.
The same with housing. The tech is the auto + instead of spending $700k on condo that's not downtown, I can drive 5 miles west and buy a SFH for less than that. Plus have my own yard and not have to listen to my neighbors stomp around at 2am.